Pro-Israel Bolsonaro Holds Narrow Lead Over Anti-Israel Brazilian President

The results represent a tightening race from the previous week’s Datafolha survey, which showed Bolsonaro leading 49% to 45%.

By United with Israel Staff

Brazil’s presidential election is shaping up to be a closely contested battle with major implications for the country’s relationship with Israel, as a new poll shows pro-Israel candidate Flávio Bolsonaro holding a narrow lead over incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

According to a Datafolha survey released Thursday, Bolsonaro received 47% support compared to Lula’s 45% ahead of the October 25 runoff election.

The two-point difference falls within the poll’s margin of error, indicating a statistical tie between the candidates. The survey, conducted among 2,520 respondents on October 13 and 14, also found that 6% intended to cast blank ballots, while 2% remained undecided.

The results represent a tightening race from the previous week’s Datafolha survey, which showed Bolsonaro leading 49% to 45%.

Bolsonaro, a senator and the eldest son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, is seeking to follow in his father’s footsteps. The elder Bolsonaro was widely regarded as one of Israel’s strongest allies in Latin America and maintained close relations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

During his presidency, Jair Bolsonaro visited Israel, expressed strong support for the Jewish state, and pursued closer diplomatic cooperation between the two countries.

Relations deteriorated sharply under Lula, who returned to power in 2023 and adopted an increasingly confrontational approach toward Israel following the October 7 Hamas massacre and the subsequent war in Gaza.

Lula repeatedly accused Israel of committing genocide and drew international condemnation after comparing Israel’s military campaign in Gaza to the Holocaust.

The remarks triggered a diplomatic crisis with Jerusalem, and Israel declared the Brazilian president persona non grata until he retracted his statements.

The current election therefore represents more than a contest between Brazil’s political left and right. It also presents two sharply different approaches to relations with the Jewish state.

Flávio Bolsonaro has aligned himself with his father’s pro-Israel political legacy, while Lula has maintained his criticism of Israeli military operations and government policies.

The younger Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula in the first round of voting earlier this month, setting up the closely contested runoff.

Despite Bolsonaro’s narrow polling advantage, the latest results suggest that neither candidate has established a decisive lead.

With the October 25 vote approaching, the outcome could determine whether Brazil moves toward restoring the close ties it enjoyed with Israel under Jair Bolsonaro or continues the more confrontational relationship that has characterized Lula’s presidency.