Women in a Beirut protest hold portraits of Mahsa Amini, Sept. 21, 2022. (AP/Bilal Hussein) (AP/Bilal Hussein)
Mahsa Amini

As Iran brutally cracks down on anti-government demonstrations, Tehran stands to receive $275 billion in sanctions relief if it strikes  a nuclear agreement with the West.

By Pesach Benson, United with Israel

Since the death of Mahsa Amini while in the custody of the Morality Police in mid-September, at least 76 Iranians have been killed by security forces in anti-government demonstrations.

Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish woman was detained in Tehran by the Morality Police for wearing her hijab improperly. During the third day of her detention, Amini collapsed in her cell and died after being transferred to a hospital. “Reports indicate she was severely beaten by members of the morality police during her arrest and transfer to the Vozara Detention Centre,” a U.N. report said.

On Monday, Iranian officials confirmed the arrests of 1,200 protestors.

That’s the backdrop to a report by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies which found that Iran stands to benefit $275 billion from sanctions relief in the first year of a nuclear agreement with the West.

According to the Washington D.C.-based think tank’s calculations, in the first year, Iran would receive $131 billion from access to frozen foreign reserves, $72 billion in oil revenue, $60 billion in non-oil revenue, and $12 billion from the lower cost of importing various goods.

By 2030, Tehran would rake in at least $1 trillion. The FDD stressed this is the long term forecast “least favorable” to Iran. If oil prices rise or if Iran manages to increase its non-oil exports, that number could jump to $1.4 trillion.

The Iranian nuclear talks have stalled, with Washington and Tehran questioning each other’s commitment. Iran has moved closer to Russia since the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and advanced its ballistic missile program. Tehran continues backing terrorist proxies across the Mideast, such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and other militias operating in Iraq and Syria.

Israeli officials are concerned that the Biden administration and senior Democratic lawmakers will renew their push for a nuclear deal after U.S. midterm elections in November. According to a recent Israel Hayom report, a U.S.-Iran agreement signed before the upcoming elections will result in a voter backlash against the Democrats.