As a rule, I don’t usually get involved in war scenarios, but after hearing the latest threats from Iran’s military brass, followed this time by our PM’s video response, I suddenly became inspired.
Yes, that’s right, right now. As in today. Ok, at least before the Israeli elections coming up in two months (as well as the Jewish New Year).
As a rule, when I write I don’t usually get involved in war scenarios, but after hearing the latest threats that are being made unabashedly by Iran’s military brass, followed this time by our prime minister’s video response in front of our new Israeli Air Force (IAF) F35A jets, I suddenly became inspired. In fact, there’s an important point that I need to make here. Right here, right now.
Sooner rather than later Israel, and perhaps in conjunction with the United States, will be forced to make the raid. Yes, the raid. You know the one. It’s the big one. It will make the 1981 precision strike on Iraqi’s Osirak reactor, otherwise known as Operation Raid on the Sun, look like a walk in the park. Back then, when some argued that the attack would alienate both the United States and Europe, Ariel Sharon allegedly quipped: “If I have a choice of being popular and dead or unpopular and alive, I choose being alive and unpopular.” Prime Minister Begin ultimately agreed, the majority of the cabinet fell in behind him, and the rest is history.
The only question is: When should an attack on Iran be carried out? It’s not a question of IF anymore. At this point, Israel can’t afford not to make a strike, as the general policy of the current nuclear agreement with Iran, certainly in the view of the European Union, has changed from prevention to containment. Indeed, all have come to agree that if the military option isn’t utilized by either the US or Israel (or both), a nuclear Iran is simply a fait-accompli, whether now or 10 years from now.
Before the Elections
If a preventative strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities is going to happen (and of course that’s the way the press must spin it, as it really would be a preventative measure), it must be both before the upcoming Israeli elections, while our prime minister still has a solid right-wing government, and before the American elections, while our friend President Donald Trump still holds power as the US army’s Commander in Chief.
Effectively, as mentioned above, we’re looking at a window of opportunity of a little over two months to initiate an attack that could take many days, if not weeks, to carry out, with hundreds or even thousands of missile strikes per day. Simply put, if there is no attack now, Israel must prepare for the day after – a new, grim reality in the entire Middle East.
Here’s an interesting question though. Does Israel really have the budget and firepower to pull this off? (Those who know me would ask: Why not just take out some priceless, spiritual weapon like the sacred Ark or something and get the whole thing over with already?) Practically speaking, though, the basic cost of each new Israeli jet aircraft is approximately (a staggering) $120 million. These are stealth fighters with highly advanced radar, which will see its targets before it is seen. Armed with the intelligence of where the surface to air missile systems are located, the IAF is potentially capable of taking the necessary measures to first avoid the Russian S-400 systems and then destroy them on Iranian soil. What other choice is there? The Begin Doctrine must be again be deployed. And now.
At Yad Vashem, and echoing his famous address to Congress, Netanyahu once said: “Even if we are forced to stand alone against Iran, we will not fear…” Well, folks, I dare say that we have just about reached that point. Everyone knows by now that where the negotiations are concerned, the US has backed out of the nuclear agreement and placed serious sanctions on the Mullahs. Is that enough though? Apparently not! The Iranians are now rebelling and actually increasing their centrifugal capacity. It’s like sticking out the middle finger to the world.
What most Israelis don’t realize is that once this breach in the agreement is officially made public, there is no way we can rely solely on the US to eliminate, or at least neutralize, Iranian capabilities with a military strike of their own. It’s now public knowledge that former US President Obama vetoed a potential Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities back in 2012, and it happened again more recently as a mole was discovered in the Knesset that effectively sabotaged an attack that was planned by Netanyahu and the IDF.
As such, Israel must initiate a new attack on Iran. The US already has plenty of naval firepower already built up in the Persian Gulf region. Take advantage guys! Here are some salient points to consider.
The truth is that Israel has sufficient nuclear and conventional power to destroy the Islamic Republic within one day in the event of any war. In this case, though, we’re talking about a surprise attack (more or less). As mentioned above, Israel is believed to have a fully prepared plan to launch a strike, which by necessity would likely involve some 80 planes and perhaps up to several hundred aircraft according to some military experts. In reality, this has been in the planning for over 10 years. Israel possesses the advanced midair refueling capabilities required for carrying out sorties over multiple Iranian targets situated between 1,500 and 2,000 km away from home. Possible targets could include uranium-enrichment sites at Natanz and Qom, the uranium-conversion plant at Isfahan, and a heavy water reactor in Arak suspected of being used to pursue a plutonium-based nuclear arms program, as well as additional facilities.
The mission would require the use of powerful, penetrating warheads, otherwise known as bunker-buster bombs, as well as possible repeated strikes to ensure success. According to a Newsweek article, the US Congress signed and transferred 55 such bombs to Israel years ago. Furthermore, the attack would likely be coordinated with the assistance of Israeli intelligence satellites that could provide real-time detailed images from the battle arena as well as Airborne Warning and Control (AWAC) aircraft. It could also involve the use of a fleet of giant Heron 2 drones, which are the size of 737 commercial airliners, as well as the use of more recent “suicide” drones.
These UAVs form the first line of defense against an expected Iranian counterstrike, involving the launch of long-range Shihab 3 missiles, or worse. These drones can reportedly reach Iran and hover over missile launch sites. Israel’s Arrow missile defense shield would undoubtedly also come into play to intercept missiles heading into Israeli airspace (not to mention the anticipated missile response from Hezbollah).
However, Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, must be taken out first so that Iran has no ears on the ground in Israel’s north in the event of a regional conflict. Not only that, but if you think that the ayatollahs in Iran have no interest or bearing on the 2020 elections in the US (or even Israel for that matter), dream on. They have a vested interest and are certainly involved! It’s a known fact that they have meddled in the past, using money and oil, and even hostages as bargaining chips to influence the outcome of previous elections in the West, and they are no doubt doing the same today.
It’s safe to assume that Iran would like nothing more than for Trump to take military action in the Strait of Hurmuz so that the New York Stock Exchange would go haywire, and certain (anti-Semitic) Democrats would then take office, etc. Does everyone understand what that means? It means that everything that is happening in that region is carefully calculated by the mullahs to provoke a certain reaction. Furthermore, Iran is watching the Israeli elections quite closely. A pre-emptive attack on both Iran and Hezbollah is the only way to truly get the upper hand and advantage in this day and age. And that doesn’t necessarily mean going for their nuclear facilities. Starting off by eliminating their ports and oil refineries will effectively bankrupt them right at the get-go.
Is Anyone Listening? I Certainly Hope So
So, what else does Israel have in terms of other forms of weaponeering capabilities? Well, we maintain (at least) two elite special forces units dedicated to assisting with air strikes, one dedicated to laser target designation (Sayeret Shaldag) and one to real time bomb damage assessment (another unit). These units are extremely well-trained and could potentially be infiltrated to the target zone prior to attack. While it would be both difficult and risky to deploy these units inside Iran, they would be very useful in aiding the strike package, particularly in bad weather.
Besides going after Nasrallah, the main focus of an imminent strike must be to target the Natanz facility. Natanz is by far both the most difficult and most important target to destroy. The main enrichment facility apparently has two large (25,000-32,000 m2) halls located 8 to 23m underground and protected by multiple layers of concrete. The combination of large size and target hardening mean that only a very robust strike could hope to destroy or at least render unusable the centrifuges within.
In order to ensure penetration of a target with these high levels of hardening, one technique is to use the bunker busters targeted on the same aimpoint but separated slightly in release time, in order to ‘burrow’ into the target. What happens, essentially, is that one bomb hits the crater made by the previous weapon, a technique contemplated by the U.S. Air Force in the first Gulf War. This takes advantage of the extremely high accuracy of bombs in combination with a penetrating warhead.
The IAF appears to have already purchased these with this technique in mind. In fact, Gen. Eitan Ben-Eliyahu, former commander of the IAF (and a participant in the Osirak strike), commented on this method of attacking hardened facilities in Jane’s Defense Weekly: “Even if one bomb would not suffice to penetrate, we could guide other bombs directly to the hole created by the previous ones and eventually destroy any target.”
Has my point been made yet? This is just the tip of the proverbial iceberg on Israel’s military capability (not including any lost Temple artifacts!), and there is really no doubt that the IAF can pull off an attack and get the job done. And let’s not forget about our Dolphins (nuclear subs) in the Gulf. The factor that complicates matters so much is that, unlike in 1981 where the mission was so secret that the pilots themselves only learned of their target the day before (or maybe even while in the air!), the US government must be notified and onside before an attack of this magnitude.
God has protected this tiny Jewish State of ours throughout our mere 71 years (+3000 or so), and it’s not far-reaching to say that if you live here and don’t believe in miracles, you’re not living with reality. Seriously!
Having said that, what bothers me the most is that the world discovered already some time ago that Iran’s intent to destroy Israel is “non-negotiable.” Why not take them at their word? For God’s sake, didn’t Chamberlain make the same mistake before WWII? Case in point, Spanish Foreign Minister and nominee for the post of EU Foreign Affairs Chief, Josep Borrell, recently stated, “We will continue working with Iran… Iran wants to wipe out Israel? There’s nothing new here. We have to live with it.”
Nothing new? We have to live with it? No, we don’t. And we won’t!
Borrell’s sickening statement indicates not only what kind of person he is, but that even the most serious threats facing members of the international community are trivialized by many diplomats like him, and in the UN. In fact, it amounts to a blatant call for the genocide and destruction of a sovereign, member state of the international community, and the time has come to finally deal with it by Israel in the most severe fashion possible. All accepted lines of basic decency have been crossed, and the Jewish People must have a proactive response from now on to the very real threats of our sworn enemies.
For the record, I really believe that the citizens living here in Israel (myself included) should, and will, accept the inevitable consequences that come with a war for the purpose of protecting our beautiful, and sacred country. Ensuring the future of the Jewish People on our ancient, holy Land.
The point? Every war is won before it’s fought, and (at least as far as Israel is concerned), the best defense is a good offense.